Picture-2_2021-08-02-151718_dwdpOur latest update and forecast of LCD TV prices confirms our view of one month ago that prices are peaking in June or July 2021 and will decline for the rest of the year. The demand surge, which resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic, has eased and industry supply has caught up to demand. Even with the declines in the second half, prices at year-end will remain higher than they were in December 2020 and dramatically higher than their all-time lows.

In our June and July updates, we referred to a series of events that suggested slowing demand and increasing supply, and recent developments have only confirmed this outlook. The increasing panel prices have led to an unprecedented increase in TV prices in the US, which will hinder demand. The path of the pandemic continues to suggest a headwind for global TV demand, as emerging economies are still struggling with COVID and suffering an economic slowdown.

The first chart shows our latest TV panel price update, with prices increasing across the board from a low in May 2020 to a high point in June or July of 2021 and then a decline to December 2021. We saw multiple inflection points for the year-long up cycle, but we now see the slowdown, which started in May 2021, as the end of the cycle. The peak prices in June/July 2021 reached levels last seen in July 2017.

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